B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
IRT
Independence Realty TrustCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 CFFO of $0.28 per share was described by IRT as ahead of its expectations, and management maintained the midpoint of 2026 CFFO guidance while raising the midpoint of its same-store NOI outlook. Improving leasing plus realized merger synergies could support a rerating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
At June 30, IRT reported 6.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA and a 2.9-year weighted-average debt maturity; refinancing costs and merger integration could offset operating gains. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466085/000143774926025436/ex_955949.htm
Momentum
41
Value
58
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.20 · Bull $18.50 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.69
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d -0.0
Value58 · Δ7d -
Sentiment47 · Δ7d -43.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • At June 30, IRT reported 6.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA and a 2.9-year weighted-average debt maturity; refinancing costs and merger integration could offset operating gains. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466085/000143774926025436/ex_955949.htm
- • Q2 new-lease rates remained negative and occupancy declined year over year, limiting confidence in near-term rent growth. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466085/000143774926025436/ex_955949.htm
- • Q2 occupancy slipped 30 basis points year over year, new-lease pricing was still negative, and IRT reported 6.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
Q3 operating results and merger update
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
41
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+12.3
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-43.6
Δ21d
-46.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 40.6 / Value 57.6 / Sentiment 47.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.62B
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
235.73M
P/E (TTM)
180.8
P/S (TTM)
6.33
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
391.25
Rev YoY
+3.1%
EPS YoY
-58.1%
Gross Margin
+20.6%
Op Margin
+17.0%
Net Debt
$2.24B
Current Ratio
0.53
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data