B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$137.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
IPAR
InterparfumsBNasdaq / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The deterministic prior has turned positive, and Q3 strength in Coach and Montblanc plus recovery of delayed giftset sales could support a stronger 2027 setup. This remains conditional: the October release contained sales, not earnings.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.
What can break
Middle East conditions reduced Q3 sales by an estimated 1%, while Ferragamo sales fell 22% and DKNY sales fell 9% in the quarter. [#8-K-2026-10-20]
Momentum
64
Value
54
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $120.00 · Bull $137.00 · Bear $95.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $126.50
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d +11.3
Value54 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -4.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Middle East conditions reduced Q3 sales by an estimated 1%, while Ferragamo sales fell 22% and DKNY sales fell 9% in the quarter. [#8-K-2026-10-20]
- • Q2 operating margin fell 330 basis points year over year amid higher marketing, royalty and logistics costs; the Q3 margin outcome has not yet been reported. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • Flat consolidated Q3 sales, a 7% decline in U.S.-based sales, shipment disruption and the earlier Q2 operating-margin decline leave the earnings bridge unproven.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-04
November 4 results will test earnings and guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.3
Δ21d
+2.7
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
-14.2
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 64.0 / Value 53.7 / Sentiment 59.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$3.69B
Beta
1.25
Shares Out
32.03M
P/E (TTM)
16.7
P/S (TTM)
1.88
P/FCF (TTM)
67.24
Rev YoY
+2.1%
EPS YoY
-4.3%
Gross Margin
+63.8%
Op Margin
+17.3%
Net Debt
-$87.46M
Current Ratio
3.31
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data