B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
IP
International PaperBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Operational execution improved in Q2: North American box volumes rose 1.7% year over year, mill performance improved by roughly 500 basis points, and Riverdale was completed on time. The Q3 EBITDA guide and planned separation provide potential recovery paths [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.5.
What can break
Higher transportation, OCC, diesel, medical, and other operating costs could offset pricing, volume, and cost-out gains.
Momentum
25
Value
45
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $45.00 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $33.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $48.90
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -8.0
Value45 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +7.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Higher transportation, OCC, diesel, medical, and other operating costs could offset pricing, volume, and cost-out gains.
- • Pine Hill's temporary closure is expected to reduce Q3 adjusted EBITDA by approximately $85 million [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
- • The Q2 result still showed a continuing-operations loss, lower adjusted EBITDA than Q1 and the prior year, negative free cash flow, and an $85 million Pine Hill headwind in Q3.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Q2 print leaves a mixed execution signal
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
25
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-8.0
Δ21d
-57.1
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-4.0
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.5
Δ21d
+15.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 25.1 / Value 45.5 / Sentiment 82.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$21.32B
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
529.57M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.8
P/S (TTM)
0.91
P/FCF (TTM)
187.69
Rev YoY
-2.2%
EPS YoY
-116.1%
Gross Margin
+18.9%
Op Margin
+0.9%
Net Debt
$11.52B
Current Ratio
1.10
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data