B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
IONQ
IonQCNYSE / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 materially strengthened the commercial narrative: record revenue, raised FY2026 guidance, 554% year-over-year RPO growth to $470 million, and evidence that systems, networking, sensing, and security are becoming a broader platform sale rather than a single-product story [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.2.
What can break
About half of the $470 million remaining performance obligations are expected beyond the next twelve months, and the disclosed RPO includes unfunded orders, which creates timing risk around conversion [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
13
Value
35
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $44.00 · Bull $58.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $69.25
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -6.4
Value35 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d +1.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • About half of the $470 million remaining performance obligations are expected beyond the next twelve months, and the disclosed RPO includes unfunded orders, which creates timing risk around conversion [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • Adjusted EBITDA loss guidance was reaffirmed at roughly ($330) million to ($310) million despite stronger revenue, limiting the quality of the earnings beat [#8-K-2026-05-06].
- • The bear case is that even after a headline beat, adjusted EBITDA loss guidance stayed wide at roughly ($330) million to ($310) million, the SkyWater close is still pending, and part of the backlog includes unfunded orders, so revenue timing and margin durability remain less certain than the headline growth rate suggests [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-20
Post-earnings digestion after Q1 beat and raised revenue outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-6.4
Δ21d
-22.8
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+16.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 12.9 / Value 34.5 / Sentiment 70.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$18.98B
Beta
2.63
Shares Out
405.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-25.7
P/S (TTM)
216.16
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-28.62
Rev YoY
+286.8%
EPS YoY
+621.0%
Gross Margin
-33.2%
Op Margin
-392.5%
Net Debt
-$2.36B
Current Ratio
10.66
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data