B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
INVA
InnovivaANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 19% year over year to $119.6 million, supported by product-sales growth and $59.8 million of royalty revenue. Sustained IST growth could support management's 2026 U.S.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
Failure to sustain IST U.S. product-sales growth could put the at-least-$150 million 2026 target at risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
69
Value
70
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.50 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $15.50Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $35.00
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d -13.2
Value70 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Failure to sustain IST U.S. product-sales growth could put the at-least-$150 million 2026 target at risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • International XACDURO development and commercialization require further execution; Nortiva remains an early development and partnering opportunity, not established revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • A $161.0 million unfavorable fair-value change in investments drove an $83.4 million Q2 net loss despite positive operating income.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Delivery against the 2026 IST U.S. sales target
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
69
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.2
Δ21d
+5.0
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
-13.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 69.2 / Value 69.9 / Sentiment 63.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.49B
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
72.25M
P/E (TTM)
15.5
P/S (TTM)
3.85
P/FCF (TTM)
7.58
Rev YoY
+18.6%
EPS YoY
-247.0%
Gross Margin
+70.0%
Op Margin
+35.8%
Net Debt
-$297.65M
Current Ratio
16.01
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data