B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
INTG
InterGroupCNasdaq / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings read is modestly better than the prior baseline: Q3 swung to profitability, hotel revenue rose 35%, and hotel KPIs improved materially, suggesting the San Francisco hotel asset is recovering faster than the broader cautious setup implied earlier.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
What can break
Hotel cash-management and lockbox provisions can limit distributions upstream to InterGroup even though debt was current and covenant compliance was maintained as of March 31, 2026.
Momentum
56
Value
50
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $37.00 · Bull $43.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d +26.7
Value50 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +1.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Hotel cash-management and lockbox provisions can limit distributions upstream to InterGroup even though debt was current and covenant compliance was maintained as of March 31, 2026.
- • Hotel strength may not fully persist if Super Bowl-related demand and improving business travel do not translate into a steadier run-rate.
- • The improvement is still not enough for a high-conviction upgrade because management tied part of the strength to event-related demand, real-estate revenue fell 16% year over year, and fixed charges plus hotel-level financing constraints still cap flexibility.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-20
May 20 annual meeting should clear a minor governance distraction after the proxy-card correction
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+26.7
Δ21d
+42.5
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
-2.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 56.1 / Value 50.1 / Sentiment 54.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$37.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$75.55M
Beta
0.21
Shares Out
2.15M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-14.2
P/S (TTM)
0.83
P/FCF (TTM)
37.63
Rev YoY
+21.1%
EPS YoY
-179.3%
Gross Margin
+18.3%
Op Margin
+14.4%
Net Debt
$180.98M
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data