B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ILMN
IlluminaFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings read-through improved: Q1 revenue grew 4.8% year over year, ROW organic growth was 3.5%, free cash flow improved, and management raised FY2026 revenue and EPS guidance while citing increasing NovaSeq X demand and clinical expansion. Early secondary coverage also pointed to at least one positive post-print revision, with Evercore ISI reportedly raising its target to $155 from $150 on May 1, 2026.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-13.
What can break
China remains a live headwind, with the company still flagging uncertainty tied to its inclusion on the 'unreliable entities list' and ongoing regional demand effects.
Momentum
79
Value
62
Sentiment
22
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $136.00 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $115.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $204.63
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +0.3
Value62 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment22 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-13.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China remains a live headwind, with the company still flagging uncertainty tied to its inclusion on the 'unreliable entities list' and ongoing regional demand effects.
- • Direct operating competition from long-read sequencing, spatial and single-cell platforms, and large life-science tools companies keeps pricing, workflow differentiation, and clinical-channel execution as live risks.
- • This still looks more like a monitoring thesis than a clean re-rating call.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-30
Q1 beat, raised FY2026 guide, and expanded buyback capacity
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+3.3
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
22
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+6.2
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 79.0 / Value 61.9 / Sentiment 21.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$136.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$29.16B
Beta
1.45
Shares Out
151M
P/E (TTM)
31.6
P/S (TTM)
5.04
P/FCF (TTM)
21.60
Rev YoY
+9.8%
EPS YoY
-9.6%
Gross Margin
+66.8%
Op Margin
+19.9%
Net Debt
$920M
Current Ratio
1.80
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data