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ILMN

IlluminaF
Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings read-through improved: Q1 revenue grew 4.8% year over year, ROW organic growth was 3.5%, free cash flow improved, and management raised FY2026 revenue and EPS guidance while citing increasing NovaSeq X demand and clinical expansion. Early secondary coverage also pointed to at least one positive post-print revision, with Evercore ISI reportedly raising its target to $155 from $150 on May 1, 2026.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
China remains a live headwind, with the company still flagging uncertainty tied to its inclusion on the 'unreliable entities list' and ongoing regional demand effects.
Momentum
98
Value
59
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $136.00 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $115.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
57 · Near miss
Next 2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-28 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $253.32
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -2.5
Value59 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment0 · Δ7d -2.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
57Near miss2026-10-29 amc
View setup

A positive $1.51 whisper versus $1.36 consensus, prior-year guidance increases, and a firm recent rebound offer some upside case; however, the retrieved tape does not establish the required >1.5x volume confirmation, and quarterly revenue upside versus consensus is unproven.

Screen as of 2026-10-28. Window 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-03.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 57 / near miss.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • China remains a live headwind, with the company still flagging uncertainty tied to its inclusion on the 'unreliable entities list' and ongoing regional demand effects.
  • • Direct operating competition from long-read sequencing, spatial and single-cell platforms, and large life-science tools companies keeps pricing, workflow differentiation, and clinical-channel execution as live risks.
  • • This still looks more like a monitoring thesis than a clean re-rating call.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Q1 beat, raised FY2026 guide, and expanded buyback capacity

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
98
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-1.5
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
0
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-1.8
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 97.9 / Value 58.9 / Sentiment 0.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$136.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$42.2B
Beta
1.45
Shares Out
151M
P/E (TTM)
31.6
P/S (TTM)
5.04
P/FCF (TTM)
21.60
Rev YoY
+9.8%
EPS YoY
-9.6%
Gross Margin
+66.8%
Op Margin
+19.9%
Net Debt
$920M
Current Ratio
1.80
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data