B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
IIPR
Innovative Industrial PropertiesCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
IIPR still has a largely leased portfolio, meaningful embedded real estate value, active re-leasing progress on troubled assets, and a visible set of near-dated milestones that could narrow the discount if the May 2026 debt and PharmaCann handoff issues are handled cleanly.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Additional tenant stress remains possible, including from Cannabist after the March 2026 payment default disclosed by the company.
Momentum
55
Value
65
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $49.00 · Bull $60.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $61.21
Why
Momentum55 · Δ7d +3.9
Value65 · Δ7d -
Sentiment43 · Δ7d -0.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Additional tenant stress remains possible, including from Cannabist after the March 2026 payment default disclosed by the company.
- • May 25, 2026 unsecured note maturity is a near-term financing overhang.
- • The deterministic prior has turned negative, catalyst density is thin, tenant issues remain central, and the next few months carry binary execution risk around the May 25, 2026 note maturity, remaining property turnovers, and further tenant stress such as the March 2026 Cannabist rent default disclosed in the portfolio update [#PR-2026-03-16].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-25
Notes due 2026 maturity and refinancing resolution
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
55
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
-4.3
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
43
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-13.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 54.5 / Value 65.0 / Sentiment 42.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.49B
Beta
1.49
Shares Out
27.57M
P/E (TTM)
11.6
P/S (TTM)
4.98
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-44.13
Rev YoY
+0.7%
EPS YoY
+57.4%
Gross Margin
+60.1%
Op Margin
+46.9%
Net Debt
$346.08M
Current Ratio
2.03
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data