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ICE

Intercontinental ExchangeB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
ICE entered the second half with 5% Q2 net-revenue growth, 8% recurring-revenue growth, a 61% adjusted operating margin and strong cash generation. Fixed-income data and analytics grew 9%, data and network technology grew 11%, and management expects MarketAxess to add institutional execution capabilities and first-full-year adjusted-EPS accretion [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] [#IR-2026-07-30].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Debt-funded consideration raises interest expense and constrains financial flexibility until leverage returns toward management's 3.0x-or-below objective.
Momentum
81
Value
50
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
8 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $183.00 · Bull $200.00 · Bear $135.00Analysis 2026-09-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $187.40
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +2.6
Value50 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +0.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Debt-funded consideration raises interest expense and constrains financial flexibility until leverage returns toward management's 3.0x-or-below objective.
  • • Exchange transaction revenue remains sensitive to trading activity; Q2 energy revenue fell 13% year over year despite strength in other exchange products.
  • • The all-cash MarketAxess transaction increases leverage and introduces regulatory, integration and synergy-realization risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Third-quarter results and guidance checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
+15.7
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-21.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 80.8 / Value 50.5 / Sentiment 61.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$183.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$91.36B
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
561.4M
P/E (TTM)
30.1
P/S (TTM)
7.54
P/FCF (TTM)
31.46
Rev YoY
+6.8%
EPS YoY
+14.4%
Gross Margin
+68.6%
Op Margin
+46.1%
Net Debt
$18.1B
Current Ratio
1.01
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data