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IBTA

IbottaD
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best near-term bull argument is that Q1 came in above management's revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges, publisher reach kept expanding, and management explicitly said the network and product set leave Ibotta positioned to return to year-over-year growth in Q3 [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.5.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA fell 41% year over year to $8.7 million and adjusted EBITDA margin dropped to 11% from 17%, leaving limited room for another monetization stumble [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Momentum
93
Value
48
Sentiment
31
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $36.14
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -1.8
Value48 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment31 · Δ7d +1.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA fell 41% year over year to $8.7 million and adjusted EBITDA margin dropped to 11% from 17%, leaving limited room for another monetization stumble [#8-K-2026-05-06].
  • • Coverage remains thin, and the packet does not provide a robust set of analyst estimate or target revisions after earnings, which lowers confidence in any aggressive post-print thesis change.
  • • The bear case is that the underlying monetization picture still looks mixed: revenue and redemption revenue both declined year over year, adjusted EBITDA fell sharply, direct-to-consumer redemptions fell 20%, and revenue per redemption declined, which suggests scale gains are not yet translating cleanly into pricing or mix [#8-K-2026-05-06].

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Q2 execution is the next check after a Q1 beat versus guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+8.5
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-5.6
Sentiment
31
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
-1.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 93.0 / Value 47.6 / Sentiment 30.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$832.95M
Beta
-
Shares Out
23.18M
P/E (TTM)
11.5
P/S (TTM)
1.71
P/FCF (TTM)
9.46
Rev YoY
+3.3%
EPS YoY
-164.5%
Gross Margin
+76.7%
Op Margin
-3.4%
Net Debt
-$160.84M
Current Ratio
1.71
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data