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IBM

International Business MachinesC
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Software momentum, Red Hat acceleration, Lightwell adoption, distributed-infrastructure backlog, and z17 capacity retention could allow IBM to recover from the Q2 timing and execution setback. Operating margin and year-to-date free cash flow remained resilient in the preliminary figures.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
News driver: AI Takes Center Court at the US Open.
What can break
Analyst revisions, options positioning, short interest, and social coverage are unavailable in the packet.
Momentum
21
Value
59
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $225.00 · Bull $270.00 · Bear $185.00Analysis 2026-07-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $245.76
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +6.6
Value59 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +5.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • News driver: AI Takes Center Court at the US Open.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revisions, options positioning, short interest, and social coverage are unavailable in the packet.
  • • Delayed large deals, capex reprioritization, and cybersecurity distractions could pressure demand and margins.
  • • The preliminary print indicates a material infrastructure and transaction-processing shortfall, slower software growth, margin pressure, delayed large deals, and execution failure.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-15

Preliminary Q2 reset exposes execution weakness

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
+9.2
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+2.1
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.4
Δ21d
+2.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 20.6 / Value 59.0 / Sentiment 57.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$270.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$215.61B
Beta
0.68
Shares Out
942.13M
P/E (TTM)
36.5
P/S (TTM)
4.22
P/FCF (TTM)
49.00
Rev YoY
+1.1%
EPS YoY
-1.9%
Gross Margin
+57.6%
Op Margin
+20.9%
Net Debt
$50.14B
Current Ratio
0.76
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data