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IBM

International Business MachinesC
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Software momentum, Red Hat acceleration, Lightwell adoption, distributed-infrastructure backlog, and z17 capacity retention could allow IBM to recover from the Q2 timing and execution setback. Operating margin and year-to-date free cash flow remained resilient in the preliminary figures.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
News driver: AI rebound opens as a credit-and-earnings test.
What can break
Analyst revisions, options positioning, short interest, and social coverage are unavailable in the packet.
Momentum
36
Value
58
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $225.00 · Bull $270.00 · Bear $185.00Analysis 2026-07-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $258.52
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -7.5
Value58 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment46 · Δ7d -8.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • News driver: AI rebound opens as a credit-and-earnings test.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revisions, options positioning, short interest, and social coverage are unavailable in the packet.
  • • Delayed large deals, capex reprioritization, and cybersecurity distractions could pressure demand and margins.
  • • The preliminary print indicates a material infrastructure and transaction-processing shortfall, slower software growth, margin pressure, delayed large deals, and execution failure.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-15

Preliminary Q2 reset exposes execution weakness

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
36
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.5
Δ21d
+1.3
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
46
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.1
Δ21d
-22.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 36.4 / Value 58.1 / Sentiment 46.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$270.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$236.52B
Beta
0.68
Shares Out
945.12M
P/E (TTM)
36.5
P/S (TTM)
4.22
P/FCF (TTM)
49.00
Rev YoY
+1.1%
EPS YoY
-1.9%
Gross Margin
+57.6%
Op Margin
+20.9%
Net Debt
$50.14B
Current Ratio
0.76
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data