B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HYLN
HyliionDNYSE American / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue of $4.9 million, the $41.7 million Navy award and the increase in 2026 revenue guidance from $10 million to $15 million support a path toward larger deployments if early units perform and further contracts materialize [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -39.6.
What can break
Cash consumption and a high revenue multiple create downside risk if contract work or customer conversion slips.
Momentum
32
Value
34
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.00 · Bull $5.00 · Bear $1.70Analysis 2026-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.75
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d -36.2
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -39.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -39.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cash consumption and a high revenue multiple create downside risk if contract work or customer conversion slips.
- • Customer-site delivery, reliability and manufacturing-throughput targets remain unproven at commercial scale [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
- • The 200 kW module's expected commercialization moved to 2027; non-binding letters of intent are not firm orders.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Potential additional military award
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
32
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-36.2
Δ21d
-56.1
Value
34
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-39.6
Δ21d
-19.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 31.7 / Value 34.1 / Sentiment 58.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$1.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$526.86M
Beta
2.57
Shares Out
178.6M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-9.0
P/S (TTM)
79.09
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.21
Rev YoY
+226.3%
EPS YoY
+2.0%
Gross Margin
-77.3%
Op Margin
-648.7%
Net Debt
-$87.99M
Current Ratio
7.59
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data