RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

HWM

Howmet AerospaceD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Q2 organic growth of 21%, strong cash generation and higher 2026 guidance support earnings momentum. The October 29 report could validate continued aerospace and gas-turbine conversion.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Customer concentration: GE Aerospace and RTX were approximately 14% and 10% of Howmet's third-party sales in the six months ended June 30, 2026; neither percentage predicts future orders. [#REL-7d73cbd7-12f2-48cf-bc8a-b68876187218] [#REL-739f0be5-320c-415f-a740-dd067b1f7574] Howmet Q2 filing
Momentum
19
Value
48
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $200.00 · Bull $235.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-10-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
33 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-27 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $327.00
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d -18.2
Value48 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +19.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bearish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
33Non-qualifying2026-10-29 bmo
View setup

Howmet has a confirmed October 29 premarket date, $1.37 EPS and $2.59 billion revenue consensus, and a strong prior beat record, but the recent tape is sharply weak and checked sources did not establish positive estimate revisions, revenue upside, or a qualifying volume-accumulation day.

Screen as of 2026-10-27. Window 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-02.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 33 / non-qualifying.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Customer concentration: GE Aerospace and RTX were approximately 14% and 10% of Howmet's third-party sales in the six months ended June 30, 2026; neither percentage predicts future orders. [#REL-7d73cbd7-12f2-48cf-bc8a-b68876187218] [#REL-739f0be5-320c-415f-a740-dd067b1f7574] Howmet Q2 filing
  • • Howmet remains secondarily liable upon an Alcoa payment default under an energy-supply guarantee; the June 2026 reported fair value was $5 million, not a cap on contingent exposure. [#REL-fcadfae2-6130-4a53-9afe-328d1c6fdcc5] Howmet Q2 filing
  • • A weaker aircraft production ramp, concentrated customer orders, CAM integration costs or higher 2027 capital spending could erode free cash flow and the premium multiple.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

October 29 third-quarter results against explicit guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.2
Δ21d
-5.0
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+19.9
Δ21d
+17.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 19.4 / Value 47.7 / Sentiment 56.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$77.51B
Beta
1.26
Shares Out
398.8M
P/E (TTM)
59.8
P/S (TTM)
10.73
P/FCF (TTM)
76.78
Rev YoY
+24.1%
EPS YoY
+32.5%
Gross Margin
+32.7%
Op Margin
+27.3%
Net Debt
$2.47B
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data