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HWM

Howmet AerospaceC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong Q2 execution, raised 2026 guidance, record aerospace backlogs, engine-spares growth, healthy defense demand, and exceptional gas-turbine demand support continued earnings and cash-flow growth. The completed CAM acquisition may add scale if integration remains clean.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-07.
What can break
CAM integration and rising capital-expenditure requirements could reduce cash-flow conversion.
Momentum
41
Value
47
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $245.00 · Bull $300.00 · Bear $190.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $343.10
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d -19.6
Value47 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +21.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-07.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +21.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • CAM integration and rising capital-expenditure requirements could reduce cash-flow conversion.
  • • Commercial-aircraft production-rate changes, supply-chain constraints, or tariff recovery issues could pressure growth or margins.
  • • The stock has already rerated substantially, and a secondary valuation analysis cited a DCF value near $219 per share versus the $231.53 anchor price.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 2026 results and higher full-year guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.6
Δ21d
-21.4
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+21.0
Δ21d
+34.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 41.3 / Value 46.6 / Sentiment 70.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$300.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$115.3B
Beta
1.26
Shares Out
398.8M
P/E (TTM)
59.8
P/S (TTM)
10.73
P/FCF (TTM)
76.78
Rev YoY
+24.1%
EPS YoY
+32.5%
Gross Margin
+32.7%
Op Margin
+27.3%
Net Debt
$2.47B
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data