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HUBS

HubSpotC
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull read is that Q1 fundamentals were better than the stock reaction: revenue beat, customer count and ARPC both grew, operating margin expanded, and cash generation improved. With shares at $197.34 on May 8, 2026 after a roughly 19% one-day decline from the May 7 anchor close of $243.72, a lot of near-term disappointment appears already reflected if execution simply tracks the reset guide.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.8.
What can break
FY2026 guidance implies only about 17% constant-currency growth, below the sharper reacceleration many investors appeared to want from the AI and pricing narrative.
Momentum
48
Value
57
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $220.00 · Bull $255.00 · Bear $165.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $244.66
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d +7.3
Value57 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +9.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FY2026 guidance implies only about 17% constant-currency growth, below the sharper reacceleration many investors appeared to want from the AI and pricing narrative.
  • • Forward proof points still hinge on retention, net new ARR/billings conversion, and whether upmarket and AI monetization levers translate into reported growth rather than remain presentation-level claims.
  • • The bear read is that the market is no longer paying for a future reacceleration story without cleaner proof.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-31

Post-earnings expectation reset can stabilize if Q1 execution is treated as conservative rather than broken

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.3
Δ21d
-3.7
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+3.4
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.8
Δ21d
-5.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 47.6 / Value 56.5 / Sentiment 55.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$255.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.73B
Beta
1.45
Shares Out
49.87M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
245.9
P/S (TTM)
6.66
P/FCF (TTM)
37.51
Rev YoY
+19.8%
EPS YoY
-1485.4%
Gross Margin
+83.2%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
-$1.44B
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data