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HUBS

HubSpotD
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull read is that Q1 fundamentals were better than the stock reaction: revenue beat, customer count and ARPC both grew, operating margin expanded, and cash generation improved. With shares at $197.34 on May 8, 2026 after a roughly 19% one-day decline from the May 7 anchor close of $243.72, a lot of near-term disappointment appears already reflected if execution simply tracks the reset guide.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
FY2026 guidance implies only about 17% constant-currency growth, below the sharper reacceleration many investors appeared to want from the AI and pricing narrative.
Momentum
53
Value
55
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $220.00 · Bull $255.00 · Bear $165.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $248.66
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d -1.8
Value55 · Δ7d -1.1
Sentiment33 · Δ7d -13.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FY2026 guidance implies only about 17% constant-currency growth, below the sharper reacceleration many investors appeared to want from the AI and pricing narrative.
  • • Forward proof points still hinge on retention, net new ARR/billings conversion, and whether upmarket and AI monetization levers translate into reported growth rather than remain presentation-level claims.
  • • The bear read is that the market is no longer paying for a future reacceleration story without cleaner proof.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-31

Post-earnings expectation reset can stabilize if Q1 execution is treated as conservative rather than broken

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
53
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+21.8
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-1.5
Sentiment
33
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.6
Δ21d
-31.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 53.0 / Value 54.8 / Sentiment 33.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$255.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$13.51B
Beta
1.45
Shares Out
49.87M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
309.5
P/S (TTM)
6.66
P/FCF (TTM)
37.51
Rev YoY
+19.8%
EPS YoY
-1485.4%
Gross Margin
+83.2%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
-$1.44B
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data