B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HST
Host Hotels ResortsDNasdaq / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 showed real operating strength rather than a purely asset-sale EPS lift: comparable hotel revenues rose 4.7%, comparable hotel EBITDA rose 7.0%, RevPAR grew 4.4%, and management raised 2026 RevPAR guidance while pairing it with a special dividend and ongoing buybacks.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Luxury and group lodging demand can soften if macro travel budgets weaken, limiting the benefit of the Q1 beat.
Momentum
39
Value
52
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $25.24
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d +4.3
Value52 · Δ7d -
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Luxury and group lodging demand can soften if macro travel budgets weaken, limiting the benefit of the Q1 beat.
- • Q1 market-level dispersion was notable: New Orleans and Washington, D.C. faced difficult comparisons, and Maui/Oahu were affected by the March 2026 Kona Low rainstorm per [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
- • The bear case is that some EPS strength was helped by asset-sale gains and condominium sales, while the stock already trades above the packet median target.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q1 beat with raised 2026 RevPAR outlook and large capital return
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
39
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.3
Δ21d
-34.8
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
50
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+6.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 39.0 / Value 52.0 / Sentiment 50.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$15.63B
Beta
1.18
Shares Out
685.12M
P/E (TTM)
17.1
P/S (TTM)
2.10
P/FCF (TTM)
270.89
Rev YoY
+3.4%
EPS YoY
+8.3%
Gross Margin
+16.4%
Op Margin
+14.4%
Net Debt
$4.87B
Current Ratio
3.13
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data