B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HSHP
Himalaya ShippingDNYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that HSHP's 12-vessel fleet keeps monetizing favorable Capesize conditions through index-linked charters and monthly cash returns, with the February 10, 2026 press release showing $39,600 per day gross TCE, $13.5 million of net income, and a January 2026 cash distribution declaration. [#PR-2026-02-10]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
Capesize demand is exposed to China growth, tariffs, trade-war risk and broader geopolitical disruptions.
Momentum
81
Value
54
Sentiment
24
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.80 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $8.90Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.47
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d -13.6
Value54 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment24 · Δ7d -4.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capesize demand is exposed to China growth, tariffs, trade-war risk and broader geopolitical disruptions.
- • Low coverage and sparse external estimates make downside harder to handicap if freight conditions weaken.
- • The bear case is that this remains a low-coverage, rate-exposed shipper where cash distributions are explicitly discretionary and variable, and earnings can compress quickly once fixed-rate protection expires or if Capesize demand weakens.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-21
May 21 Q1 report is the next hard read-through on earnings durability
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
81
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.6
Δ21d
-19.3
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
24
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.8
Δ21d
+2.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 81.2 / Value 54.2 / Sentiment 24.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$796.7M
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
47.17M
P/E (TTM)
85.5
P/S (TTM)
3.57
P/FCF (TTM)
25.10
Rev YoY
+79.6%
EPS YoY
+2113.6%
Gross Margin
+64.5%
Op Margin
+60.9%
Net Debt
$656.8M
Current Ratio
1.19
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data