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HRTG

Heritage InsuranceD
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary-source evidence improved: Q1 net income rose 19.7% year over year, the loss ratio improved to 45.9%, the combined ratio improved to 81.0%, and book value per share rose 4.6% from year-end, while management paired this with a larger repurchase authorization [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.0.
What can break
Catastrophe and coastal concentration remain core risks; the 10-K flags concentration in coastal states and exposure to hurricane and other weather-related losses [#10-K-2026-03-12].
Momentum
88
Value
63
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.50 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $39.00
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -4.4
Value63 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment42 · Δ7d +2.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Catastrophe and coastal concentration remain core risks; the 10-K flags concentration in coastal states and exposure to hurricane and other weather-related losses [#10-K-2026-03-12].
  • • Low analyst coverage and limited verified post-print revision data reduce confidence in reading the post-earnings selloff.
  • • The follow-up is still monitoring-oriented because earned premium was essentially flat, gross premiums written declined 2.6%, and the stock traded sharply below the May 7 anchor after the release, implying investors are questioning growth durability or expectations despite the strong quarter.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-07

Q1 earnings reset shows stronger underwriting and a larger buyback authorization

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
-6.8
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
42
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 88.3 / Value 62.7 / Sentiment 41.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$24.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.02B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
29.73M
P/E (TTM)
5.6
P/S (TTM)
0.99
P/FCF (TTM)
7.96
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
+32.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+34.5%
Net Debt
-$472.77M
Current Ratio
1.14
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data