B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HQY
HealthEquityCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record HSA accounts and assets, margin expansion, and raised guidance support continued growth [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]. Deutsche Bank reportedly raised its target to $142 from $135 after the print, while Barclays raised its target to $115 from $110 on September 18 but retained Equal Weight (Deutsche Bank revision, Barclays revision).
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
A modest earnings beat and guidance near reported expectations may not sustain a rerating despite stronger margins.
Momentum
51
Value
59
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $98.00 · Bull $115.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $120.67
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d +19.9
Value59 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -15.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A modest earnings beat and guidance near reported expectations may not sustain a rerating despite stronger margins.
- • Slower HSA sales or weaker cash balances could pressure service and custodial revenue [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27].
- • The reported Q2 beat was modest: $1.24 adjusted EPS versus a $1.19 FactSet estimate and $350.7 million revenue versus $349.2 million.
Catalyst clock
2027-01-31
Delivery against raised fiscal 2027 guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
51
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+19.9
Δ21d
+16.7
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.1
Δ21d
-25.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 51.2 / Value 58.7 / Sentiment 43.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.6B
Beta
0.24
Shares Out
82.72M
P/E (TTM)
42.8
P/S (TTM)
6.19
P/FCF (TTM)
22.02
Rev YoY
+7.1%
EPS YoY
+33.9%
Gross Margin
+62.6%
Op Margin
+26.0%
Net Debt
$682.55M
Current Ratio
3.44
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data