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HMN

Horace Mann EducatorsC
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull read after the May 6, 2026 earnings release is that HMN is showing durable multiline execution: strong P&C profitability, favorable mortality in Life & Retirement, continued sales momentum in supplemental/group, and maintained full-year guidance. That combination keeps the earnings-improvement narrative alive rather than looking like a one-quarter spike.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
What can break
Life & Retirement fixed annuity spread was lower year over year, so investment spread pressure remains a watch item even with stable fee income and persistency.
Momentum
36
Value
56
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $48.00 · Bull $51.00 · Bear $40.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $56.50
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -3.4
Value56 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Life & Retirement fixed annuity spread was lower year over year, so investment spread pressure remains a watch item even with stable fee income and persistency.
  • • Management said California remains a complex and highly regulated auto market, which limits how quickly sales growth can broaden.
  • • The bear read is that the quarter benefited from lighter catastrophe losses and favorable reserve development, while the market reaction stayed muted.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-08

Q1 print showed strong underwriting and maintained full-year core EPS guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
36
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-15.1
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+2.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 36.5 / Value 56.2 / Sentiment 60.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.08B
Beta
0.07
Shares Out
40.5M
P/E (TTM)
11.5
P/S (TTM)
1.11
P/FCF (TTM)
3.31
Rev YoY
+7.7%
EPS YoY
+42.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+14.6%
Net Debt
$565.9M
Current Ratio
0.96
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data