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HLT

Hilton WorldwideD
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The cleanest post-earnings bull read is that Hilton paired better Q1 operating results with a higher full-year outlook, while pipeline size, net unit growth, and capital return still support a premium multiple. Deterministic priors also lean positive over 20-120 days, though only moderately.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
What can break
Hilton had $12.5 billion of debt outstanding at March 31, 2026, which limits flexibility if travel demand weakens materially, even though no material maturities are due before April 2027.
Momentum
86
Value
44
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $336.00 · Bull $355.00 · Bear $290.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
52 · Near miss
Next 2026-10-27 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-26 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $358.28
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d +4.2
Value44 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -1.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
52Near miss2026-10-27 bmo
View setup

HLT has a strong 20-session advance and a high-close, high-volume session, but the checked estimate sources show EPS expectations drifting down and no credible positive revenue-revision signal. Strong prior execution and tape are not enough to offset that missing fundamental surprise signal.

Screen as of 2026-10-26. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 52 / near miss.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Hilton had $12.5 billion of debt outstanding at March 31, 2026, which limits flexibility if travel demand weakens materially, even though no material maturities are due before April 2027.
  • • Management flagged anticipated lower Middle East RevPAR as a second-quarter drag.
  • • The cautious read is that HLT already screens as a high-coverage, well-understood compounder, so a good quarter may not be enough for a major rerating.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · BMO

Q1 beat-and-raise resets the near-term earnings narrative

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+12.8
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-17.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 86.2 / Value 43.8 / Sentiment 49.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$355.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$336.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$290.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$78.69B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
225.07M
P/E (TTM)
41.4
P/S (TTM)
5.66
P/FCF (TTM)
30.88
Rev YoY
+6.5%
EPS YoY
+14.3%
Gross Margin
+27.8%
Op Margin
+23.3%
Net Debt
$12.24B
Current Ratio
0.65
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data