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HLT

Hilton WorldwideB
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The cleanest post-earnings bull read is that Hilton paired better Q1 operating results with a higher full-year outlook, while pipeline size, net unit growth, and capital return still support a premium multiple. Deterministic priors also lean positive over 20-120 days, though only moderately.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.8.
What can break
Hilton had $12.5 billion of debt outstanding at March 31, 2026, which limits flexibility if travel demand weakens materially, even though no material maturities are due before April 2027.
Momentum
47
Value
45
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $336.00 · Bull $355.00 · Bear $290.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $355.63
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -0.5
Value45 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +9.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Hilton had $12.5 billion of debt outstanding at March 31, 2026, which limits flexibility if travel demand weakens materially, even though no material maturities are due before April 2027.
  • • Management flagged anticipated lower Middle East RevPAR as a second-quarter drag.
  • • The cautious read is that HLT already screens as a high-coverage, well-understood compounder, so a good quarter may not be enough for a major rerating.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-28

Q1 beat-and-raise resets the near-term earnings narrative

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+17.1
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.9
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.8
Δ21d
+11.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 46.5 / Value 44.7 / Sentiment 72.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$355.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$336.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$290.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$73.4B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
225.07M
P/E (TTM)
41.4
P/S (TTM)
5.66
P/FCF (TTM)
30.88
Rev YoY
+6.5%
EPS YoY
+14.3%
Gross Margin
+27.8%
Op Margin
+23.3%
Net Debt
$12.24B
Current Ratio
0.65
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data