B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HLN
HaleonBNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
H1 margin expansion, 12% adjusted EPS growth, strong free cash flow, North American sequential improvement, and Oral Health momentum support a constructive medium-term recovery case.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.0.
What can break
Demand remains exposed to a challenging consumer environment and weaker regional backdrops, particularly in EMEA and Latin America.
Momentum
32
Value
66
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.90 · Bull $11.50 · Bear $8.20Analysis 2026-09-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.37
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d -27.4
Value66 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d -4.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Demand remains exposed to a challenging consumer environment and weaker regional backdrops, particularly in EMEA and Latin America.
- • H2 acceleration is required to reach FY 2026 guidance and has not yet been demonstrated.
- • Organic revenue growth of 2.6% remains below Haleon’s 4%-6% medium-term ambition, so the investment case depends on unproven H2 acceleration.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
H1 2026 results showed margin and EPS strength, but growth remains modest
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
32
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-27.4
Δ21d
-12.9
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+6.4
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.0
Δ21d
-9.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 31.6 / Value 65.5 / Sentiment 68.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$41.72B
Beta
0.39
Shares Out
4.4B
P/E (TTM) · Derived
19.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM)
23.47
Rev YoY
-0.3%
EPS YoY
+7965.6%
Gross Margin
+65.5%
Op Margin
+23.3%
Net Debt
$9.8B
Current Ratio
0.69
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data