B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HLF
HerbalifeCNYSE / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Four consecutive quarters of net-sales growth, Q2 constant-currency execution above guidance, personalized-nutrition launches, and cash generation support a constructive medium-term case.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
What can break
CFO retirement and succession at year-end could add transition risk.
Momentum
30
Value
71
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.50 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.00
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d +7.7
Value71 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CFO retirement and succession at year-end could add transition risk.
- • Demand durability and distributor engagement remain insufficiently evidenced beyond four quarters of growth.
- • Reported EBITDA guidance was narrowed lower because of FX, gross margin declined year over year, and the GAAP result included a large debt-extinguishment loss.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 2026 earnings beat with mixed guidance revision
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
30
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.7
Δ21d
+17.4
Value
71
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
+1.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 30.3 / Value 71.2 / Sentiment 59.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.26B
Beta
0.84
Shares Out
104.8M
P/E (TTM)
4.1
P/S (TTM)
0.27
P/FCF (TTM)
6.15
Rev YoY
+5.4%
EPS YoY
-152.7%
Gross Margin
+75.3%
Op Margin
+9.0%
Net Debt
$1.83B
Current Ratio
1.20
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data