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HIG

Hartford Insurance GroupC
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained combined-ratio improvement, meaningful reserve releases, and consistent capital returns re-rate the stock toward the analyst high (171.15). Execution on underwriting and capital deployment is the catalyst.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Material capital deployment missteps (repurchases/dividends)
Momentum
33
Value
60
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
5 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $141.94 · Bull $171.15 · Bear $120.00Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $150.05
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d +1.8
Value60 · Δ7d -9.6
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Material capital deployment missteps (repurchases/dividends)
  • • Reserve deterioration from prior accident years
  • • Material reserve deterioration, elevated catastrophe losses, or weaker investment returns compress underwriting margins and multiples, driving the stock toward the analyst low (120.0).

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

FY2025/Q4 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-12.2
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.6
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
+5.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 32.9 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 66.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$171.15
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$141.94
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$37.03B
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
270.87M
P/E (TTM)
11.3
P/S (TTM)
1.38
P/FCF (TTM)
7.27
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
+36.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.0%
Net Debt
$4.19B
Current Ratio
0.32
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data