HGV

Hilton Grand VacationsA

NYSE / Consumer Services

Quote time unavailable

Current thesis

The post-earnings setup improved versus the prior baseline because the company delivered a sharp year-over-year profit rebound, raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, and continued large buybacks. Third-party post-print coverage checked in this run also indicated the quarter beat pre-release expectations, and a May 1, 2026 StreetInsider snippet showed Barclays raising its target to $51 from $48, which is directionally supportive even if broad revision breadth is still unclear.

Posture

Constructive

Lead driver

Sentiment

What changed

Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.7.

What can break

Contract sales were down $2 million year over year to $719 million, so the earnings beat was not driven by a clean top-line acceleration in core contract sales [#8-K-2026-04-30].

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $49.00 · Bull $54.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.

Data freshness

Prices

Unavailable: Price unavailable

Fundamentals

As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence

What

Grade A · Constructive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $55.64

Why

Momentum18 · Δ7d -0.3

Value60 · Δ7d 0.0

Sentiment87 · Δ7d +9.7

So what

Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

• Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

• Contract sales were down $2 million year over year to $719 million, so the earnings beat was not driven by a clean top-line acceleration in core contract sales [#8-K-2026-04-30].
• Net debt remained high at about $4.757 billion as of March 31, 2026, leaving HGV exposed to execution slippage or softer financing conditions [#10-Q-2026-04-30].
• The thesis should still stay in monitoring mode.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-01

Q1 beat and raised 2026 EBITDA outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot

Momentum

9% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

-0.3

Δ21d

+5.2

Value

28% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

0.0

Δ21d

+1.3

Sentiment

62% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+9.7

Δ21d

+12.2

Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 18.1 / Value 60.0 / Sentiment 87.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$54.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$49.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$39.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-08-17

Market Cap

$3.49B

Beta

1.48

Shares Out

77.72M

P/E (TTM)

78.9

P/S (TTM)

0.77

P/FCF (TTM)

50.17

Rev YoY

+7.3%

EPS YoY

-45.3%

Gross Margin

+56.5%

Op Margin

+12.2%

Net Debt

$6.78B

Current Ratio

5.02

As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data