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HDSN

HudsonB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Hudson still showed volume-led revenue growth, guided Q2 revenue to $73-76 million, and is adding HFO reclamation lanes that can offset some legacy mix pressure. Checked secondary earnings coverage also indicated revenue came in above consensus while Q2 revenue guidance was roughly in line, so the equity can recover if margins normalize through the core season.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.9.
What can break
Cash fell to $19.4 million at March 31, 2026 from $39.5 million at year-end 2025, and operating cash flow was negative $12.8 million in Q1. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
Momentum
21
Value
55
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.80 · Bull $7.20 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.31
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +1.4
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +5.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cash fell to $19.4 million at March 31, 2026 from $39.5 million at year-end 2025, and operating cash flow was negative $12.8 million in Q1. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
  • • Gross margin slipped to 20% from 22%, and management tied the pressure partly to product mix; if HFO/HFC mix stays unfavorable, revenue growth may not translate into earnings. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
  • • The bear case is that the print exposed how sensitive earnings remain to refrigerant mix, pricing, and execution: gross margin fell to 20% from 22%, SG&A rose on ERP optimization and strategic spending, EPS fell to $0.01, and operating cash flow was negative in Q1.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Q2 selling season must convert firmer HFC pricing into margin recovery

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+7.7
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.4
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.9
Δ21d
+7.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 20.7 / Value 54.6 / Sentiment 71.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$258.85M
Beta
0.91
Shares Out
42.09M
P/E (TTM)
13.9
P/S (TTM)
1.28
P/FCF (TTM)
6.82
Rev YoY
+7.5%
EPS YoY
-47.9%
Gross Margin
+21.9%
Op Margin
+6.1%
Net Debt
-$34.17M
Current Ratio
3.23
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data