B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HCAT
Health CatalystDNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q4 showed better adjusted EBITDA, platform clients increased to 162, and the business mix is moving toward higher-margin technology revenue, so even modest execution improvement could re-rate a stock trading at distressed levels [#PR-2026-03-12] [#10-K-2026-03-12].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Additional impairment or acquisition integration issues damage confidence
Momentum
93
Value
62
Sentiment
28
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.10 · Bull $2.25 · Bear $0.60Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1.83
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -
Value62 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment28 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Additional impairment or acquisition integration issues damage confidence
- • Debt covenant or liquidity constraints tighten strategic flexibility
- • The bear case is that retention weakened to 93%, near-term revenue headwinds are explicit, FY2026 guidance is withheld during a strategic review, and year-end liquidity fell sharply after debt repayment and acquisitions, leaving little room for another execution stumble [#PR-2026-03-12] [#10-K-2026-03-12].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Q1 2026 revenue and EBITDA against March outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+19.8
Sentiment
28
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 92.8 / Value 61.7 / Sentiment 27.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$127.94M
Beta
1.74
Shares Out
75.26M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.7
P/S (TTM)
0.51
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
15.54
Rev YoY
-12.7%
EPS YoY
-6.9%
Gross Margin
+34.5%
Op Margin
-11.2%
Net Debt
$75.51M
Current Ratio
2.68
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data