B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HCA
HCA HealthcareBNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Core demand remained positive, with admission and emergency-room growth, higher revenue per equivalent admission, and Q2 reported earnings growth. Stored third-party earnings context also reports revenue and EPS above consensus, although the consensus evidence is not from an official company release.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
What can break
Direct analyst estimate revisions, target changes, options data, short interest, and social coverage were unavailable.
Momentum
76
Value
65
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $455.00 · Bull $500.00 · Bear $350.00Analysis 2026-08-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
44 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-27 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-26 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $462.86
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d +8.0
Value65 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -2.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
44Non-qualifying2026-10-27 bmo
HCA has confirmed pre-market reporting, credible EPS/revenue consensus, and revenue growth drivers including higher inpatient revenue per admission; however, Zacks reported negative Earnings ESP and an expected year-over-year EPS decline, with no qualifying volume or close-location data verified.
Screen as of 2026-10-26. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 44 / non-qualifying.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Direct analyst estimate revisions, target changes, options data, short interest, and social coverage were unavailable.
- • Medicaid supplemental-payment benefits may be timing-sensitive and are not a substitute for underlying operating improvement.
- • The uninsured-patient increase and related payer-mix shift reduced profitability, elective surgical volumes declined, and Q2 operating cash flow fell year over year.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-27 · BMO
Payer-mix and Medicaid-payment follow-through
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
+17.4
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
-17.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 76.0 / Value 65.2 / Sentiment 44.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$455.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$101.55B
Beta
1.37
Shares Out
216.5M
P/E (TTM)
18.5
P/S (TTM)
1.47
P/FCF (TTM)
14.71
Rev YoY
+8.7%
EPS YoY
+11.6%
Gross Margin
+15.5%
Op Margin
+15.5%
Net Debt
$47.55B
Current Ratio
0.99
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data