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HAIN

Hain Celestial GroupA
Nasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case rests on strong Q3 cash generation, $155 million of debt reduction, improving North American gross margin, and potential benefits from the snacks divestiture [#8-K-2026-05-11]. The scheduled September 14 report is the next decision point.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-14 · BMO.
What can break
Debt, leverage, refinancing, and covenant compliance remain material balance-sheet risks.
Momentum
26
Value
69
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.75 · Bull $1.25 · Bear $0.40Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-09-14 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1.36
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d -
Value69 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-14 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Debt, leverage, refinancing, and covenant compliance remain material balance-sheet risks.
  • • Gross-margin and adjusted-EBITDA pressure could persist, particularly internationally amid inflation and weaker volume/mix.
  • • Q3 net sales fell 13% year over year, organic sales fell 6%, gross margin declined 90 basis points, adjusted EBITDA fell to $26 million from $34 million, and adjusted results moved to a loss [#8-K-2026-05-11].

Catalyst clock

2026-09-14 · BMO

Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-2.6
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 26.3 / Value 69.4 / Sentiment 83.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$1.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$0.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$50.45M
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
90.25M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
1.1
P/S (TTM)
0.07
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
1.22
Rev YoY
-13.3%
EPS YoY
-21.6%
Gross Margin
+19.3%
Op Margin
+2.2%
Net Debt
$724.87M
Current Ratio
0.52
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data