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GSM

FerroglobeA
Nasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes strong recovery in silicon and manganese pricing, improved operating leverage, and working-capital normalization leading to materially higher free cash flow and multiple expansion.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Currency volatility and geopolitical risks could disrupt operations or exports.
Momentum
85
Value
38
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.50 · Bull $8.00 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2025-10-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.00
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -1.1
Value38 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d -0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Currency volatility and geopolitical risks could disrupt operations or exports.
  • • Inventory revaluations or working-capital swings could trigger earnings surprises.
  • • Bear case assumes weaker end-market demand, margin pressure from feedstock and energy costs, plus inventory write-downs and higher leverage that compress valuation.

Catalyst clock

2025-11-05

Quarterly results (Q3/FY2025) release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
+10.5
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 84.7 / Value 38.0 / Sentiment 84.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-10. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$801.63M
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
186.86M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.7
P/S (TTM)
0.66
P/FCF (TTM)
85.81
Rev YoY
-2.1%
EPS YoY
-676.8%
Gross Margin
+11.8%
Op Margin
-4.1%
Net Debt
$135.06M
Current Ratio
1.29
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data