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FerroglobeC
Nasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Higher shipments, Q2 free cash flow of $20.4 million and lower net debt provide a base for recovery if silicon pricing stabilizes and trade measures become effective. [#PR-2026-08-04] Company results
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.
What can break
An EU antidumping review has begun, but a favorable final outcome, its timing and its effect on Ferroglobe's realized prices are uncertain. [#PR-2026-09-01]
Momentum
76
Value
38
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.40 · Bull $6.00 · Bear $2.80Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.00
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d +8.3
Value38 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -1.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • An EU antidumping review has begun, but a favorable final outcome, its timing and its effect on Ferroglobe's realized prices are uncertain. [#PR-2026-09-01]
  • • Q2 silicon-metal adjusted EBITDA was negative despite a 33.7% sequential shipment increase; realized prices fell 5.9%. [#PR-2026-08-04]
  • • Silicon-metal volume growth has not yet restored segment profitability.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-30

EU silicon-metal trade review

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+8.3
Δ21d
-1.5
Value
38
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
66
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-2.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 76.1 / Value 37.9 / Sentiment 65.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$723.15M
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
186.86M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.3
P/S (TTM)
0.66
P/FCF (TTM)
85.81
Rev YoY
-2.1%
EPS YoY
-676.8%
Gross Margin
+11.8%
Op Margin
-4.1%
Net Debt
$135.06M
Current Ratio
1.29
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data