B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GRNT
Granite Ridge ResourcesCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 report combined positive adjusted earnings, higher adjusted EBITDAX, new well additions, inventory acquisitions, maintained dividends, and management's stated path toward 2027 free cash flow. The company also reported 1.4x net debt to trailing-twelve-month adjusted EBITDAX [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.
What can break
Grey Rock plans potential in-kind share distributions in Q3 2026; ownership below 50% could require a governance transition [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Momentum
58
Value
56
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.75 · Bull $7.80 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.79
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d -16.1
Value56 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +3.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Grey Rock plans potential in-kind share distributions in Q3 2026; ownership below 50% could require a governance transition [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
- • Lease operating expense increased 47% per Boe year over year, driven by water cuts, flowback, equipment rentals, and contract labor [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
- • The earnings quality is mixed: production grew only 1%, lease operating expense per Boe rose 47%, natural-gas realization weakened materially, and 2026 remains a capital-outspend year.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-07
Q2 2026 earnings delivered a constructive headline result
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
58
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.1
Δ21d
-0.9
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+1.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 58.2 / Value 55.8 / Sentiment 62.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$693.8M
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
131.9M
P/E (TTM)
15.6
P/S (TTM)
1.30
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.29
Rev YoY
+36.7%
EPS YoY
+19.0%
Gross Margin
+27.4%
Op Margin
+20.7%
Net Debt
$359.53M
Current Ratio
1.02
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data