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GRAL

GRAILD
Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The constructive case is that Q1 showed continued commercial traction: total revenue rose 28% year over year to $40.8 million, Galleri revenue rose 37% to $39.8 million, and test volume increased 50% to more than 56,000, while cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities were $823.1 million at March 31, 2026 [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.
What can break
Broader reimbursement is still limited; GRAIL says it does not currently have broader Medicare or large commercial insurer coverage, which can constrain scale even if clinical interest remains solid [#10-Q-2026-05-07] [#10-K-2026-03-12].
Momentum
66
Value
41
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $64.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $42.00Analysis 2026-05-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $73.50
Why
Momentum66 · Δ7d +6.9
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment40 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Broader reimbursement is still limited; GRAIL says it does not currently have broader Medicare or large commercial insurer coverage, which can constrain scale even if clinical interest remains solid [#10-Q-2026-05-07] [#10-K-2026-03-12].
  • • Clinical readouts remain nuanced: management highlighted favorable cancer-stage findings, but also disclosed the NHS-Galleri trial did not meet its primary endpoint of statistically significant combined stage 3 and 4 reduction, which may temper investor interpretation of upcoming data releases [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
  • • The bear case is that the equity still depends heavily on a long and uncertain PMA and reimbursement path for a product that remains unapproved by the FDA, with management acknowledging approval could take several months or years and broader Medicare/large commercial coverage is still not in place [#10-Q-2026-05-07] [#10-K-2026-03-12].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-30

Late-breaking ASCO presentations from NHS-Galleri and PATHFINDER 2

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
66
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+6.9
Δ21d
+5.9
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
40
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-18.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 66.1 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 40.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$64.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.12B
Beta
-
Shares Out
44.67M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.3
P/S (TTM)
26.32
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.50
Rev YoY
+25.7%
EPS YoY
-19.7%
Gross Margin
-37.0%
Op Margin
-323.0%
Net Debt
-$849.57M
Current Ratio
10.95
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data