B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$110.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GPN
Global PaymentsBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The company's August 5 release reported Q2 adjusted EPS growth of 12%, normalized adjusted net revenue growth of approximately 4%, 70 basis points of normalized adjusted operating-margin expansion, progress integrating Worldpay, accelerating Genius adoption, and $1.2 billion of year-to-date capital returned [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]. Post-print secondary coverage reported concrete target increases including Morgan Stanley to $103 from $100, Baird to $120 from $114, Keefe Bruyette to $95 from $76, and Argus to $110 from $95; Wolfe Research upgraded the shares to Outperform with a $110 target.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
What can break
GAAP diluted EPS of $0.05 versus adjusted EPS of $3.46 creates a potentially confusing headline earnings profile.
Momentum
78
Value
56
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $99.08 · Bull $110.00 · Bear $83.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $103.22
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d -6.1
Value56 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +7.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • GAAP diluted EPS of $0.05 versus adjusted EPS of $3.46 creates a potentially confusing headline earnings profile.
- • Middle East conflict and travel exposure could pressure payment volumes and require further guidance reductions.
- • The revenue-growth and EPS outlook was reduced because of travel headwinds, and the initial share-price reaction remained negative.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-15
Post-print guidance reset remains a near-term overhang
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
78
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.1
Δ21d
-17.2
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.8
Δ21d
+3.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 78.0 / Value 55.8 / Sentiment 72.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$99.08
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$83.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$23.92B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
264.62M
P/E (TTM)
12.4
P/S (TTM)
2.05
P/FCF (TTM)
6.95
Rev YoY
+68.6%
EPS YoY
-57.1%
Gross Margin
+63.9%
Op Margin
+20.6%
Net Debt
$13.46B
Current Ratio
0.82
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data