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GLRE

Greenlight Capital ReA
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest post-earnings bull read is that GLRE converted a prior-year underwriting loss into a $6.2 million underwriting profit, improved the combined ratio by 8.6 points, and increased fully diluted book value per share to $21.40 while buying back stock below that level [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
What can break
Gross premiums written declined 8% year over year in Q1 2026, limiting evidence of broad-based top-line acceleration [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Momentum
20
Value
61
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.50 · Bull $20.50 · Bear $15.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d -0.2
Value61 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment80 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Gross premiums written declined 8% year over year in Q1 2026, limiting evidence of broad-based top-line acceleration [#8-K-2026-05-05].
  • • Investment results remain central to earnings and book-value progression, leaving the thesis sensitive to Solasglas performance and market volatility [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-K-2026-03-09].
  • • The cautious read is that gross premiums written still fell 8%, Innovations posted a 102.3% combined ratio, and the earnings model remains meaningfully exposed to Solasglas investment performance and catastrophe/reserve volatility; delayed analyst revision data was not available in the packet and was not confirmed from primary follow-up sources.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Q1 earnings confirmed improved underwriting and book value growth

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
20
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-3.8
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+2.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 20.1 / Value 61.3 / Sentiment 79.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$502.68M
Beta
0.55
Shares Out
32.64M
P/E (TTM)
11.3
P/S (TTM)
0.80
P/FCF (TTM)
3.52
Rev YoY
-9.0%
EPS YoY
+21.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+7.4%
Net Debt
-$636.33M
Current Ratio
1.30
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data