B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$94.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
GHM
GrahamDNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: durable margin expansion from higher-margin aftermarket/service sales plus one or more material contract wins drives sustained EPS upgrades and a re-rate toward the high end of analyst targets (~$94.5).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
What can break
Cyclical downturn in industrial capital spending
Momentum
22
Value
40
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $79.00 · Bull $94.50 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-02-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $130.75
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d -11.5
Value40 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -1.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cyclical downturn in industrial capital spending
- • Input-cost inflation compressing margins
- • Bear case: weaker industrial demand, a major customer loss, or input-cost pressure causes backlog and margin deterioration, prompting analyst downgrades toward the low-$50s (~$52.0).
Catalyst clock
2026-05-09
Quarterly earnings / FY results (estimated window)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.5
Δ21d
-48.8
Value
40
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
+24.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 22.1 / Value 40.1 / Sentiment 48.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$79.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.36B
Beta
0.92
Shares Out
11.74M
P/E (TTM)
56.9
P/S (TTM)
3.38
P/FCF (TTM)
143.53
Rev YoY
+28.6%
EPS YoY
-19.8%
Gross Margin
+22.6%
Op Margin
+6.6%
Net Debt
$13.61M
Current Ratio
1.23
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data