B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$94.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
GHM
GrahamCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: durable margin expansion from higher-margin aftermarket/service sales plus one or more material contract wins drives sustained EPS upgrades and a re-rate toward the high end of analyst targets (~$94.5).
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.4.
What can break
Cyclical downturn in industrial capital spending
Momentum
13
Value
41
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $79.00 · Bull $94.50 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-02-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $125.60
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -12.6
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +4.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cyclical downturn in industrial capital spending
- • Input-cost inflation compressing margins
- • Bear case: weaker industrial demand, a major customer loss, or input-cost pressure causes backlog and margin deterioration, prompting analyst downgrades toward the low-$50s (~$52.0).
Catalyst clock
2026-05-09
Quarterly earnings / FY results (estimated window)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.6
Δ21d
-30.3
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
72
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.4
Δ21d
+30.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 13.2 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 72.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$79.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$775.82M
Beta
0.92
Shares Out
11.74M
P/E (TTM)
56.9
P/S (TTM)
3.38
P/FCF (TTM)
143.53
Rev YoY
+28.6%
EPS YoY
-19.8%
Gross Margin
+22.6%
Op Margin
+6.6%
Net Debt
$13.61M
Current Ratio
1.23
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data