B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GFS
GlobalFoundriesBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue of $1.786 billion and non-IFRS gross margin of 29.9% exceeded GF's guidance ranges, while the newly announced TSMC agreement gives its advanced-packaging expansion a named customer and long-term scope. [#PR-GFS-Q2-2026] GF Q2 release [#PR-GFS-2026-10-08] GF announcement
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Capacity expansion and the 2028 interposer ramp may require spending well before meaningful revenue arrives. [#PR-GFS-2026-10-08] GF announcement
Momentum
20
Value
66
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $49.00 · Bull $62.00 · Bear $34.00Analysis 2026-10-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $74.40
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d -19.3
Value66 · Δ7d +1.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +6.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capacity expansion and the 2028 interposer ramp may require spending well before meaningful revenue arrives. [#PR-GFS-2026-10-08] GF announcement
- • FDX Fusion's evaluation, design-win and manufacturing milestones remain prospective rather than booked commercial results. [#PR-GFS-2026-10-09] GF roadmap
- • The interposer ramp is not expected until 2028, and FDX Fusion is still in development.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-04
November 4 Q3 results test the existing guide
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
20
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.3
Δ21d
-7.1
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.7
Δ21d
-11.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 19.6 / Value 65.8 / Sentiment 62.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$24.36B
Beta
1.48
Shares Out
548.75M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
27.8
P/S (TTM)
3.04
P/FCF (TTM)
17.71
Rev YoY
+5.8%
EPS YoY
-26.4%
Gross Margin
+27.1%
Op Margin
+11.6%
Net Debt
-$1.34B
Current Ratio
2.48
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data