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GEG

Great Elm GroupD
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull read is that GEG still has real balance-sheet flexibility, with about $45.5 million of cash at March 31, 2026, meaningful remaining buyback capacity, ongoing real-estate platform activity, and a CoreWeave-related investment that has already returned more than original cost [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Fee-paying AUM and total AUM were about $528 million and $744 million, down 7% and 3% year over year, respectively, which tempers the growth case [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Momentum
66
Value
40
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.20 · Bull $2.55 · Bear $1.75Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum66 · Δ7d -
Value40 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fee-paying AUM and total AUM were about $528 million and $744 million, down 7% and 3% year over year, respectively, which tempers the growth case [#8-K-2026-05-06].
  • • GECC-related common stock and SPV exposure drove roughly $9.8 million of unrealized losses in the quarter, showing continued NAV and earnings sensitivity to credit-market sentiment [#8-K-2026-05-06].
  • • The bear read is that reported earnings quality remains weak because the quarter was dominated by GECC-related unrealized losses, fee-paying AUM and total AUM were down year over year, GECC incentive fees were waived through June 30, 2026, and the company’s private credit fund redeemed all third-party investors, all of which weakens confidence in near-term fee growth [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06].

Catalyst clock

2026-06-15

Post-earnings digestion remains a monitoring setup, not a clean beat story

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
66
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.2
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 66.2 / Value 40.0 / Sentiment 55.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$2.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$67.17M
Beta
0.45
Shares Out
31.09M
P/E (TTM)
17.5
P/S (TTM)
3.59
P/FCF (TTM)
139.33
Rev YoY
+6.5%
EPS YoY
+167.0%
Gross Margin
+43.6%
Op Margin
-58.7%
Net Debt
-$46.86M
Current Ratio
13.18
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data