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GD

General DynamicsB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2's strong orders, backlog, margin expansion and cash generation could support upside if Q3 confirms profitable Aerospace and Marine conversion. The Q2 SEC-filed company release is the operating basis, not evidence of a Q3 beat.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
A long-term tracked-vehicle contract includes variable consideration that may realize below GD's estimate and materially hurt results; the amount at risk is not disclosed. [#REL-5f85a8ed-55bf-406f-8ea4-77710879e6b6] [#REL-8cc1d742-c3a5-4d15-a8c6-1d79a12d0e56] [#REL-a2d3963f-a7b7-41bf-9fa7-2fd7eea64f1d] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40533/000004053326000032/gd-20260705.htm
Momentum
52
Value
59
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $353.00 · Bull $405.00 · Bear $310.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $406.05
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d -6.4
Value59 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +1.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A long-term tracked-vehicle contract includes variable consideration that may realize below GD's estimate and materially hurt results; the amount at risk is not disclosed. [#REL-5f85a8ed-55bf-406f-8ea4-77710879e6b6] [#REL-8cc1d742-c3a5-4d15-a8c6-1d79a12d0e56] [#REL-a2d3963f-a7b7-41bf-9fa7-2fd7eea64f1d] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40533/000004053326000032/gd-20260705.htm
  • • Aerospace customer deposits support backlog but are liquidated on revenue recognition; aircraft execution and cash conversion still need verification. [#REL-08bb7958-d217-41c4-9375-c0f4b35e83e7] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40533/000004053326000032/gd-20260705.htm
  • • The supposed October 22 post-earnings trigger is premature: GD itself scheduled its Q3 call for October 30.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30

October 30 third-quarter results and call

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
52
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.4
Δ21d
+7.2
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-2.4
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
-11.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 52.4 / Value 58.8 / Sentiment 57.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$405.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$353.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$310.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$94.52B
Beta
0.41
Shares Out
270.56M
P/E (TTM)
23.1
P/S (TTM)
1.86
P/FCF (TTM)
29.79
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
+13.3%
Gross Margin
+15.4%
Op Margin
+10.3%
Net Debt
$7.46B
Current Ratio
1.44
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data