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FSTR

L B FosterD
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The cleanest post-print bull read is that FSTR carried late-2025 momentum into Q1 with a sharp Rail rebound, better gross profit execution, lower leverage, and unchanged full-year guidance, which supports the idea that 2025 was the setup year for a better 2026.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.4.
What can break
Backlog of $209.6 million was down 11.7% year over year even after improving sequentially late in the quarter.
Momentum
32
Value
66
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $26.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $44.00
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d -0.3
Value66 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +1.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog of $209.6 million was down 11.7% year over year even after improving sequentially late in the quarter.
  • • Cash flow used in operations was still negative $10.4 million in Q1, and debt increased sequentially during the normal working-capital build.
  • • The bear read is that the stock likely pulled forward much of the near-term earnings relief on day one, while backlog is still lower year over year, operating cash flow remained negative in Q1, and management explicitly tied guidance to a stable macro and geopolitical backdrop.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-04

Q1 earnings reset sentiment with strong sales, EBITDA expansion, and guidance reaffirmation

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
32
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-5.3
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+4.0
Sentiment
50
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+2.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 32.0 / Value 65.7 / Sentiment 50.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$404.8M
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
10.52M
P/E (TTM)
62.2
P/S (TTM)
0.56
P/FCF (TTM)
10.33
Rev YoY
-3.5%
EPS YoY
+10.4%
Gross Margin
+21.1%
Op Margin
+4.7%
Net Debt
$67.06M
Current Ratio
2.00
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data