B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FROG
JFrogDNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is a beat-and-raise software setup with more company-specific evidence than a normal reporting cadence: stronger cloud growth, improving large-customer counts, 120% net retention, higher FY2026 guidance, and dated March AI governance launches around MCP Registry and Agent Skills Registry. The immediate market reaction supports the idea that investors were underestimating the quarter.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
GAAP profitability remains negative despite strong non-GAAP margins, leaving room for quality-of-earnings debate if growth slows.
Momentum
81
Value
41
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $69.00 · Bull $78.00 · Bear $56.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $112.00
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +0.9
Value41 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment36 · Δ7d +9.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • GAAP profitability remains negative despite strong non-GAAP margins, leaving room for quality-of-earnings debate if growth slows.
- • Post-earnings upside may already be heavily priced in after the sharp move from $57.02 on May 7, 2026 to about $70.55 by May 9, 2026.
- • The bear case is that much of the good news has already been capitalized quickly: FROG moved from the May 7, 2026 anchor close of $57.02 to about $70.55 by May 9, 2026, a gain of roughly 23.7%.
Catalyst clock
2026-03-18
March AI supply-chain launches create a dated adoption checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-6.5
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
36
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.6
Δ21d
+7.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 81.4 / Value 40.8 / Sentiment 36.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$69.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.67B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
123.3M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-153.1
P/S (TTM)
13.86
P/FCF (TTM)
49.43
Rev YoY
+28.7%
EPS YoY
-81.8%
Gross Margin
+77.5%
Op Margin
-12.9%
Net Debt
-$692.67M
Current Ratio
2.08
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data