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FPH

Five PointC
NYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Liquidity of $576.2 million, including $358.7 million of cash, gives Five Point room to defer land sales; management says the timing change does not alter its view of land value. The Great Park agreement renewal supports a fee-income case [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
What can break
Additional land-sale deferrals or weak builder demand could reduce or shift earnings beyond the revised 2026 outlook [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22].
Momentum
53
Value
50
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.40 · Bull $5.10 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d -
Value50 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Additional land-sale deferrals or weak builder demand could reduce or shift earnings beyond the revised 2026 outlook [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22].
  • • Limited verified analyst coverage and loose peers make target-based valuation checks low-conviction.
  • • The approximately 80% reduction in 2026 net-income guidance is a material negative thesis change.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-23

Q3 results and sharp 2026 guidance reduction

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
53
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 53.0 / Value 49.9 / Sentiment 50.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$460.64M
Beta
1.41
Shares Out
71.81M
P/E (TTM)
18.0
P/S (TTM)
2.04
P/FCF (TTM)
1.94
Rev YoY
+86.0%
EPS YoY
+228.2%
Gross Margin
+47.5%
Op Margin
-3.2%
Net Debt
$91.54M
Current Ratio
425.20
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data