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FOXF

Fox FactoryA
Nasdaq / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Cost savings, portfolio rationalization, stronger powersports demand, and eventual chassis normalization could produce operating leverage and support a modest re-rating. Q2 adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance and management maintained a $50 million savings objective.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
What can break
Ford F-150 chassis constraints may persist longer than management expects, delaying upfit recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
87
Value
55
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.80 · Bull $25.50 · Bear $16.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.83
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d -7.6
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +5.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Ford F-150 chassis constraints may persist longer than management expects, delaying upfit recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Net debt was $606.4 million and net leverage was 3.7x; the credit agreement covenant was expanded to 5.0x. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Revenue remains pressured by SSG destocking and OEM timing, while tariffs, freight, commodities, fuel, mix, and constrained F-150 chassis availability weigh on margins.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-07

Q2 results exceeded adjusted EBITDA guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
87
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.6
Δ21d
-9.9
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.0
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 87.1 / Value 54.5 / Sentiment 74.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$21.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$863.74M
Beta
1.50
Shares Out
42.03M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.6
P/S (TTM)
0.50
P/FCF (TTM)
8.59
Rev YoY
-4.5%
EPS YoY
+47.3%
Gross Margin
+27.5%
Op Margin
+4.8%
Net Debt
$721.54M
Current Ratio
3.10
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data