B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FNKO
FunkoDNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
At $3.68, the stock reflects skepticism even after management laid out a much better 2026 EBITDA bridge; if Funko can hold gross margin in the low-40s, show cleaner licensed-product sell-through, and keep inventory/debt moving down, equity upside can be meaningful from this base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.4.
What can break
2026 guidance misses, especially if Q1 fails to support the full-year EBITDA bridge
Momentum
88
Value
64
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.25 · Bull $5.50 · Bear $2.50Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.94
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +9.2
Value64 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment33 · Δ7d +11.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 guidance misses, especially if Q1 fails to support the full-year EBITDA bridge
- • Debt remains high relative to equity value even after the maturity extension, limiting room for execution mistakes
- • 2025 still showed a steep earnings reset, sales remain soft, and the 2026 plan leans on execution against tariffs, mix, and royalty costs.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q1 execution must validate the new 2026 guide
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.2
Δ21d
+8.6
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+28.0
Sentiment
33
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.4
Δ21d
+10.1
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 88.0 / Value 64.2 / Sentiment 33.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$341.57M
Beta
0.57
Shares Out
56M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.9
P/S (TTM)
0.20
P/FCF (TTM)
2.09
Rev YoY
+7.4%
EPS YoY
-135.9%
Gross Margin
+38.5%
Op Margin
+2.7%
Net Debt
$250.63M
Current Ratio
1.16
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data