B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FNKO
FunkoDNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
At $3.68, the stock reflects skepticism even after management laid out a much better 2026 EBITDA bridge; if Funko can hold gross margin in the low-40s, show cleaner licensed-product sell-through, and keep inventory/debt moving down, equity upside can be meaningful from this base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
2026 guidance misses, especially if Q1 fails to support the full-year EBITDA bridge
Momentum
97
Value
63
Sentiment
13
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.25 · Bull $5.50 · Bear $2.50Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.83
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d +1.3
Value63 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment13 · Δ7d -1.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 guidance misses, especially if Q1 fails to support the full-year EBITDA bridge
- • Debt remains high relative to equity value even after the maturity extension, limiting room for execution mistakes
- • 2025 still showed a steep earnings reset, sales remain soft, and the 2026 plan leans on execution against tariffs, mix, and royalty costs.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q1 execution must validate the new 2026 guide
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
97
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
+47.4
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
13
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-14.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 96.7 / Value 62.8 / Sentiment 13.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$383.07M
Beta
0.57
Shares Out
56M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.5
P/S (TTM)
0.20
P/FCF (TTM)
2.09
Rev YoY
+7.4%
EPS YoY
-135.9%
Gross Margin
+38.5%
Op Margin
+2.7%
Net Debt
$250.63M
Current Ratio
1.16
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data