B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FMAO
Farmers Merchants BancorpCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 results indicated genuine operating momentum: record quarterly net income, NIM expansion, lower funding costs, stronger deposits, healthy credit quality, and a loan pipeline [#SEC-8K-2026-04-22]. The dividend increase provides modest capital-return support [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-30].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
A director reported an open-market sale of 6,000 shares at $28.72 on June 22; this is a secondary sentiment signal only and does not establish an operating trend [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-24].
Momentum
81
Value
54
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $25.50Analysis 2026-07-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $36.00
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +5.0
Value54 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +0.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A director reported an open-market sale of 6,000 shares at $28.72 on June 22; this is a secondary sentiment signal only and does not establish an operating trend [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-24].
- • Bank earnings remain sensitive to deposit pricing, funding access, interest rates, liquidity, credit quality, commercial real estate exposure, agriculture, and CECL judgments.
- • The deterministic prior is negative over 5-, 20-, 60-, and 120-day horizons.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-21
Q2 earnings confirmation remains the key checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.0
Δ21d
-5.4
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 81.2 / Value 53.9 / Sentiment 51.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$482.47M
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
13.77M
P/E (TTM)
10.5
P/S (TTM)
2.90
P/FCF (TTM)
28.88
Rev YoY
+7.5%
EPS YoY
+52.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+26.2%
Net Debt
$208.52M
Current Ratio
0.12
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data