RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

FMAO

Farmers Merchants BancorpD
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Q1 results indicated genuine operating momentum: record quarterly net income, NIM expansion, lower funding costs, stronger deposits, healthy credit quality, and a loan pipeline [#SEC-8K-2026-04-22]. The dividend increase provides modest capital-return support [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-30].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26.
What can break
A director reported an open-market sale of 6,000 shares at $28.72 on June 22; this is a secondary sentiment signal only and does not establish an operating trend [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-24].
Momentum
83
Value
51
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $25.50Analysis 2026-07-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-26
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $36.00
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +2.4
Value51 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment43 · Δ7d -2.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A director reported an open-market sale of 6,000 shares at $28.72 on June 22; this is a secondary sentiment signal only and does not establish an operating trend [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-24].
  • • Bank earnings remain sensitive to deposit pricing, funding access, interest rates, liquidity, credit quality, commercial real estate exposure, agriculture, and CECL judgments.
  • • The deterministic prior is negative over 5-, 20-, 60-, and 120-day horizons.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-26

Q2 earnings confirmation remains the key checkpoint

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-0.4
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
43
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
-3.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 82.5 / Value 50.7 / Sentiment 43.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$503.27M
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
13.77M
P/E (TTM)
10.5
P/S (TTM)
2.90
P/FCF (TTM)
28.88
Rev YoY
+7.5%
EPS YoY
+52.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+26.2%
Net Debt
$208.52M
Current Ratio
0.12
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data