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FLYW

FlywireC
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 operating print, raised FY26 outlook, strong TPV growth, enterprise wins, and buyback support a constructive post-earnings thesis. Management also highlighted a path toward $1 billion of revenue and a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin, but that remains a long-term objective rather than current guidance.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.8.
What can break
CEO and other officers reported recent open-market sales; this is a sentiment risk, not direct evidence about operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-20]
Momentum
90
Value
45
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.50 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $14.50Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.20
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d +3.5
Value45 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -7.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • CEO and other officers reported recent open-market sales; this is a sentiment risk, not direct evidence about operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-20]
  • • Gross margin fell to 53.4% from 57.0% year over year, while adjusted gross margin fell to 56.6% from 61.1%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • Gross-margin compression, education exposure to visa-policy changes, and execution risk around scaling profitability could offset the growth signal.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Q2 results and raised FY26 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
90
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
+18.8
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.8
Δ21d
-22.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 89.9 / Value 45.4 / Sentiment 56.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$20.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$2.33B
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
121.67M
P/E (TTM)
335.8
P/S (TTM)
2.97
P/FCF (TTM)
37.41
Rev YoY
+27.2%
EPS YoY
-32.4%
Gross Margin
+55.3%
Op Margin
+5.9%
Net Debt
-$353.65M
Current Ratio
1.52
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data