B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FIZZ
National BeverageBNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
National Beverage ended FY2026 with $350 million of cash, maintained a 37% gross margin, and reported distribution and velocity gains for newer LaCroix flavors. Management also cited lower commodity costs and greater consumer spending flexibility as potential supports for improved performance.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Continued volume weakness and cautious consumer spending could outweigh pricing and mix benefits.
Momentum
63
Value
61
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $33.00 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $32.00
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d +8.0
Value61 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Continued volume weakness and cautious consumer spending could outweigh pricing and mix benefits.
- • New-product distribution and velocity claims require sustained execution to convert into broader volume growth.
- • FY2026 net sales fell to $1.18 billion, case volume declined 6.7%, and EPS decreased to $1.96 from $2.00.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-08
Verification of post-earnings demand recovery
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
+20.6
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 63.4 / Value 61.2 / Sentiment 71.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.9B
Beta
0.71
Shares Out
93.61M
P/E (TTM)
16.0
P/S (TTM)
2.48
P/FCF (TTM)
18.98
Rev YoY
-5.3%
EPS YoY
-9.9%
Gross Margin
+37.9%
Op Margin
+20.3%
Net Debt
-$290.61M
Current Ratio
4.39
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data