B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$515.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FFIV
F5CNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q3 print showed strong product-led execution, with revenue up 11%, product revenue up 19%, systems up 32%, and non-GAAP operating margin improving to 35.0%. The raised FY26 outlook supports a constructive post-print thesis.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
F5's guidance excludes potentially variable cyber-incident costs and other non-recurring items; the company also identifies cybersecurity, supply-chain, competition, and IT-spending risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Momentum
66
Value
57
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $440.11 · Bull $515.00 · Bear $300.00Analysis 2026-07-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $440.11
Why
Momentum66 · Δ7d -7.2
Value57 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +8.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • F5's guidance excludes potentially variable cyber-incident costs and other non-recurring items; the company also identifies cybersecurity, supply-chain, competition, and IT-spending risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
- • Recent Form 4 records show open-market sales by several insiders, including the CFO, CEO, and sales EVP; this is a monitoring signal only and is not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-03]
- • The strongest growth is concentrated in systems, while software grew 7% and services 3%.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-27
Q3 FY26 beat and raised outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
66
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.2
Δ21d
+3.3
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.9
Δ21d
+3.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 65.8 / Value 57.2 / Sentiment 58.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$440.11
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$300.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$22.4B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
56.63M
P/E (TTM)
23.1
P/S (TTM)
5.12
P/FCF (TTM)
17.44
Rev YoY
+10.9%
EPS YoY
+11.4%
Gross Margin
+80.6%
Op Margin
+25.0%
Net Debt
-$1.08B
Current Ratio
1.64
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data