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FER

FerrovialD
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The I-285 selection adds a substantial prospective project while first-half 407 ETR revenue and EBITDA growth demonstrated pricing power. Ferrovial's I-24 presentation targets a double-digit equity IRR, subject to financing and traffic assumptions.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
I-24's estimated $9.2 billion construction program and July 2027 financial-close deadline expose the investment case to funding, cost and timing assumptions. [#SEC-6K-2026-10-05] SEC presentation
Momentum
21
Value
54
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $47.00 · Bull $57.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $65.53
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d -4.5
Value54 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -0.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • I-24's estimated $9.2 billion construction program and July 2027 financial-close deadline expose the investment case to funding, cost and timing assumptions. [#SEC-6K-2026-10-05] SEC presentation
  • • I-285's $8.9 billion expected construction value is a project-level figure, not Ferrovial revenue or a disclosed equity commitment. [#PR-2026-10-15] Ferrovial release
  • • Large, long-duration bids increase sensitivity to financing costs, construction execution and traffic forecasts.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27

407 ETR and Ferrovial nine-month results

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
21
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-10.3
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-29.9
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 20.7 / Value 54.3 / Sentiment 47.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$35.52B
Beta
0.69
Shares Out
721.13M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
4.43
P/FCF (TTM)
40.37
Rev YoY
+4.7%
EPS YoY
+33.4%
Gross Margin
+10.4%
Op Margin
+10.4%
Net Debt
$7.59B
Current Ratio
1.20
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data