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FDSB

Fifth District BancorpD
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Repurchase activity combined with stable credit metrics and modest NIM expansion drives re-rating toward mid-teens multiples for a small-cap bank, lifting shares toward the bull target.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Adverse credit/loan-loss reserve build
Momentum
61
Value
43
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.00 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-03-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum61 · Δ7d -
Value43 · Δ7d +1.2
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adverse credit/loan-loss reserve build
  • • Failure to execute announced repurchase or capital-return actions
  • • Weak loan performance or rising reserves in the next 10-Q, or slow/absent repurchase execution, leads to multiple compression and downside toward the bear target.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-10

Next quarterly 10-Q / operational update (monitor credit / NIM / capital)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
61
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 61.1 / Value 42.9 / Sentiment 52.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$95.87M
Beta
-
Shares Out
5.24M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
22.9
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
70.67
Rev YoY
-34.4%
EPS YoY
-87.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+8.5%
Net Debt
-$4.99M
Current Ratio
14.18
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data