B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2.97
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
FDMT
4D Molecular TherapeuticsFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Positive readouts and/or a major partnership would validate the capsid platform, accelerate licensing/revenue potential and prompt multiple expansion.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Negative trial results, manufacturing or regulatory setbacks, or dilutive financings would materially compress valuation for this small‑cap biotech.
Momentum
49
Value
41
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.98 · Bull $2.97 · Bear $0.50Analysis 2025-11-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-11-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.09
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d -23.8
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Negative trial results, manufacturing or regulatory setbacks, or dilutive financings would materially compress valuation for this small‑cap biotech.
- • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Clinical readouts for lead AAV programs
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
49
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-23.8
Δ21d
-37.8
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
0
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 49.4 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-11-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$1.98
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$0.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$596.64M
Beta
3.00
Shares Out
55.24M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.5
P/S (TTM)
3475.72
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.64
Rev YoY
+25106.7%
EPS YoY
+6.2%
Gross Margin
+91.2%
Op Margin
-214.2%
Net Debt
-$381.24M
Current Ratio
8.03
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data