B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
FCX
Freeport-McMoRanCNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Grasberg life-of-resource extension proves cash-flow accretive, capex is manageable and copper/metals price strength persists; investors re-rate FCX toward the high end of analyst range.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Commodity price volatility (copper, gold)
Momentum
76
Value
50
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $60.00 · Bull $78.00 · Bear $40.00Analysis 2026-03-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
0 · Disqualified
Next 2026-10-27 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-27 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $80.98
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -19.1
Value50 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +6.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
0Disqualified2026-10-27 bmo
The supplied calendar places FCX's before-market report on the as-of date, so a verifiable pre-event assessment cannot be established; moreover, available checks did not verify the required pre-event revision, revenue-upside, or tape signals. Its October operating update described production near expectations, but does not establish an earnings surprise.
Screen as of 2026-10-27. Window 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-02.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 0 / disqualified.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commodity price volatility (copper, gold)
- • Geopolitical and permitting risk at Grasberg
- • Contractual terms or higher-than-expected capex/asset retirement obligations dent free cash flow and require higher reinvestment, pressuring the multiple.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-27 · BMO
8-K disclosure window (March 20/23, 2026) — monitor for material operational/capex items
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.1
Δ21d
-8.7
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.9
Δ21d
+4.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 75.6 / Value 50.2 / Sentiment 52.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$93.57B
Beta
1.46
Shares Out
1.44B
P/E (TTM)
37.9
P/S (TTM)
3.00
P/FCF (TTM)
63.52
Rev YoY
-8.5%
EPS YoY
+27.4%
Gross Margin
+24.5%
Op Margin
+22.1%
Net Debt
$6.44B
Current Ratio
2.07
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data